2010 MLB Preview & Predictions

Final Standings

American League

East

1. New York Yankees

Let's start with the favorites to win it all (again). The Yankees lineup is loaded, but just like last year the key will be how good their starting pitching is past CC Sabathia (especially in the playoffs). Are they going to end up missing Johnny Damon?

2 Key Players: A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte

2. Boston Red Sox*

The starting pitching is scary. Does anyone want to face "The Three J's" Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey in the playoffs? The defense should be improved with the additions of Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron. Offensively, if one of David Ortiz, J.D. Drew or Beltre step up they will be lethal.

2 Key Players: David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Oh, life in the AL East. If the Rays were in any other division in baseball I think they would make the playoffs (still would not be surprised if they did). Unfortunately, they play in a division with two of the three best teams in MLB. Starting pitching needs to come together.

2 Key Players: Matt Garza, B.J. Upton

4. Baltimore Orioles

Orioles should be improved, but it is not their time yet. Good offense, starting pitching still developing. Building a nice nucleus around Wieters, Markakis, Jones, etc.

2 Key Players: Matt Wieters, Jeremy Guthrie

5. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays entered rebuilding mode with the trade of Roy Halladay. They could be a tough team to face, but are most likely in store for a rough season. Starting pitching is a massive question mark.

2 Key Players: Adam Lind, Ricky Romero


Central

1. Minnesota Twins

The injury to Joe Nathan is just devastating. Jon Rauch and Co. need to be serviceable at least in his absence. Joe Mauer will be great, but how great? How does the new ballpark play?

2 Key Players: Jon Rauch, Joe Mauer

2. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are a trendy pick this year. I can see them finishing anywhere from first to third. Starting pitching has the potential to be stellar. If Jake Peavy is close to the Jake Peavy of a few years ago, then they would be my favorite to win the division. Bobby Jenks may end up playing himself out of the closer role this season.

2 Key Players: Jake Peavy, Gordon Beckham

3. Detroit Tigers

Most people seem to be off the bandwagon given their collapse last year and the departures of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson. I think they'll be better than what most people seem to be projecting.

2 Key Players: Rick Porcello, Magglio Ordonez

4. Kansas City Royals

If Billy Butler and/or Zach Grienke do not at least match what they did last year....I do not even want to finish that thought. Let's just face it, another rough season awaits.

2 Key Players: Zach Grienke, Billy Butler

5. Cleveland Indians

Not much can go right if Mitch Talbot and David Huff are in your starting rotation this season. Oh, and the Indians should have demanded Clay Buchholz in exchange for Victor Martinez. It had to be said.

2 Key Players: Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner


West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels probably do not have the best roster in the division, but at this point I cannot bet against Scioscia; he has proven too much. They will ride their starting pitching all year. Finally, let me just say that I am glad that Brian Fuentes is not the closer of my favorite team.

2 Key Players: Kendry Morales, Brian Fuentes

2. Texas Rangers

They have a deep lineup. I just do not think they have quite enough starting pitching. Josh Hamilton needs to show up and Ian Kinsler needs to stay healthy...and he is already going to be on the disabled list.

2 Key Players: Rich Harden, Josh Hamilton

3. Seattle Mariners

And I thought the White Sox were trendy. Felix Hernandez and a healthy Cliff Lee will be a dynamite 1-2 punch. Are there two players on this team that will hit over 20 home runs? Also, Milton Bradley = clubhouse poison.

2 Key Players: Ryan Rowland Smith, Franklin Gutierrez

4. Oakland Athletics

I can see any team in this division winning it, but I think the A's have the lowest margin for error. They do not have enough on the offensive side of things. However, if the starting pitching comes together, they will be near the top in the end.

2 Key Players: Brett Anderson, Kurt Suzuki



National League

East

1. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are absolutely loaded; Shane Victorino is projected to bat 7th! They signed a prototypical second hitter in Placido Polanco. To top it off, they added one of the top starters in the game in Roy Halladay. If anything, the bullpen will be the downfall.

2 Key Players: Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge (closer role)

2. Atlanta Braves*

Another trendy pick, I am buying in. Solid lineup, solid pitching, like the Billy Wagner pickup. Will Jason Heyward be as good as advertised in year one? Will Bobby Cox's last year be a factor?

2 Key Players: Derek Lowe, Jason Heyward

3. Florida Marlins

The Marlins do not seem to have a lot to work with, but are still competitive. No one will want to play them in September. I think they will finish right around .500.

2 Key Players: Ricky Nolasco, Leo Nunez

4. New York Mets

Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. The Mets have big names, but I do not think they have a complete team. If they get healthy at some point, they will be interesting.

2 Key Players: Johan Santana, Jose Reyes

5. Washington Nationals

It is never a good thing when the most appealing players in your organization are not on your Major League roster. Just let me know when Stephen Strasburg makes his debut.

2 Key Players: Ryan Zimmerman, Ivan Rodriguez


Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are really solid. They have two aces. If Ludwick does what he did two years ago, lookout. They still need one more starter to be above average. I see Ryan Franklin being sketchy as the closer this season.

2 Key Players: Ryan Ludwick, Brad Penny

2. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers will need the back side of the rotation to at least be average. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder is as scary as it gets in terms of a 1-2 combo in a lineup; opposing pitchers will be sweating.

2 Key Players: Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart

3. Chicago Cubs

A ton of question marks for the Cubs this year. What version of Carlos Zambrano shows up? Can Aramis Ramirez stay healthy? Can Carlos Marmol close effectively? Does Alfonso Soriano have anything left? By the way, Soriano's contract is a candidate for the worst in the game. He will be paid $18 million over the next FOUR years.

2 Key Players: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Marmol

4. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have the potential to compete in this division. A lot hinges on the young players and starting pitching.

2 Key Players: Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey

5. Houston Astros

When your projected Opening Day infield is Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui, Tommy Manzella, and Pedro Feliz, you are probably not headed for greatness. The bullpen and the 3-5 spots in the rotation are question marks.

2 Key Players: Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Look on the bright side Pittsburgh, your city still has the Steelers and the Penguins. The Pirates rotation is made up of a bunch of 3-5 level starters and they field several borderline Major League level everyday players. They will compete for the worst record in baseball.

2 Key Players: Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones


West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Opening Day starter: Vicente Padilla. Fifth starter: Charlie Haeger...not necessarily the recipe for a division title. The Dodgers need Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier to continue to progress and have Chad Billingsley/Clayton Kershaw pitch efficiently with some vigor. Do Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal have anything left in the tank? I think enough goes right and Torre works a little magic for them to win the division...narrowly. Don't get me started on "The Divorce."

2 Key Players: Chad Billingsley, Rafael Furcal

2. Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are as trendy as it gets this year. I guess I am not buying in quite as much as others. Troy Tulowitzki will be good, but how good? How good will the rotation be past Ubaldo Jimenez? Huston Street is already going on the DL. They have a lot of depth in the field.

2 Key Players: Troy Tulowitzki, Jeff Francis

3. San Francisco Giants

Same story as the past few years. Old everyday players, fantastic starting pitching. I just do not see enough offensively. Eliminate Eugenio Velez, does anyone end the year with double digit steals?

2 Key Players: Jonathan Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

One of four teams that has a legitimate shot at winning this division. The D-backs need Brandon Webb to be Brandon Webb in order to stay in the race. It looks like he will start the season on the DL, not a great sign. How will Justin Upton follow up his breakout season? There are question marks all over their lineup; not sure what to expect, it could go well or horribly wrong.

2 Key Players: Brandon Webb, Justin Upton

5. San Diego Padres

Take Adrian Gonzalez off of this team and the Padres might threaten to break the record for the fewest runs scored in a season. The pitching is not much better as Jon Garland is the Opening Day starter.

2 Key Players: Kevin Correia, Chase Headley

*Wild Card


Playoffs

Divisional Round

National League
Philadelphia Phillies over Los Angeles Dodgers
St. Louis Cardinals over Atlanta Braves

American League
New York Yankees over Minnesota Twins
Boston Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim


League Championship Series
Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals
Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees


World Series
Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox


MVP

National League
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

American League
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
3. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins


Cy Young

National League
1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
2. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
3. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

American League
1. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
2. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
3. Zach Grienke, Kansas City Royals


Rookie of the Year

National League
1. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
3. Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee Brewers

American League
1. Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles
3. Scott Sizemore, Detroit Tigers


Manager of the Year
National League: Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves
American League: Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim


Sleeper Team (projected third or lower in their division)
National League: Arizona Diamondbacks
American League: Oakland Athletics


Five Comeback Players
1. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
2. Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves
3. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
4. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
5. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians


Five Breakout Players
1. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
2. Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins
3. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals
4. Scott Baker, Minnesota Twins
5. Jake Fox, Oakland Athletics


Five "Take the next step forward" Players
1. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
3. Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
4. Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians
5. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds


Five "Take a step backward" Players
1. Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves
2. A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees
3. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
4. Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
5. Edwin Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks

My Thoughts on Pete Carroll & USC

What will happen to USC football post-Pete Carroll? This is a question that has crossed my mind from time to time over recent years. Considering all of the success Carroll has had at USC, I also wondered why he and USC would ever part ways. Still, the relationship would come to an end at some point and Carroll would move on for one reason or another. But what would be the reason(s)? What would be the circumstances? Good terms? Bad terms? Carroll’s terms? Fired? Retirement? NFL? UFL? OK, maybe not the last one. As much and as often as I thought about it, it always seemed far off in the distance. Well, everything has changed in short order with the news that he is all but certain to take the Seattle Seahawks head coach position and it is now time to face the reality that he will no longer be coaching USC football. Even with this reality I still cannot quite figure out what will happen to USC post-Carroll or how I feel about this situation.

Before getting into anything else, it is important to look at Pete Carroll’s career as head coach at USC. Coming into the program in 2001, Carroll’s hire was not a popular one. However, after posting a 6-6 record in his first season, he turned USC back into a national powerhouse. From 2002 to 2008 USC was the mark of consistency when they went through a period in which they won at least 11 games, won at least a share of the PAC-10 Conference title, finished in the top four in the final AP poll, and played in a BCS bowl game each season. Overall at USC, Carroll has amassed a 97-19 (.836 win pct.) record, a 14-4 mark against the AP top 10, a 7-2 bowl record while setting tons of records in the process. Along with numerous award winners, All-Americans, and NFL draft picks under Carroll, USC has had three Heisman Trophy winners in Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and John David Booty Reggie Bush. Probably above all, Carroll has led USC to two National Championships in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. I could go on, but the point here is that under Pete Carroll USC has been, if not the top program in the country, one of the top two or three.

Again with all of the success mentioned above, one wonders why Carroll’s last coaching job would not be as head coach at USC. It seems like the perfect marriage and it is not as if Carroll had a tremendous amount of success as a head coach in the NFL previous to his time at USC. However, unlike previous years when Carroll flirted with the NFL, there seems to be more reasons why Carroll would leave USC this time. First and foremost, USC may have NCAA sanctions coming down in the near future as a result of violations involving former football players Reggie Bush and Joe McKnight, former basketball player O.J. Mayo, and who knows whom/what else. In the past few weeks, USC self imposed sanctions on its basketball program. It is difficult to know what is going on at USC, but the NCAA has been investigating their athletic program for some time now; at some point the NCAA will be coming up with a ruling on this investigation. Maybe Carroll foresaw sanctions or maybe he simply does not want to risk sanctions. None of us know what role these possible sanctions play in his decision, but it is certainly something that should be discussed as a possible factor. Additionally, maybe he is leaving because he has grown weary of some aspects of the college system (and/or his specific situation at USC) such as players leaving early for the NFL draft, coaches leaving the program for other jobs, and the flaws of the BCS system. USC struggled this season for the first time since Carroll’s first season as the rest of the PAC-10 seemed to have caught up to the Trojans. Maybe this plays a factor in his decision. Maybe Carroll is leaving USC for the money and the facilities in Seattle. Maybe Carroll simply wants a change of scenery. As much as I do not wish to speculate, I cannot help but wonder how much of a role potential NCAA sanctions play in Pete’s decision; of all the factors mentioned, it seems somewhat obvious to me that this factor would play the most realistic and substantial role. Let’s not kid ourselves here; Pete certainly would not be the first coach to leave his post with possible NCAA sanctions on the way. While I can see Carroll getting tired of his players and coaches leaving the program along with having to deal with the BCS system, I do not think those factors on their own would be enough for him to leave. Carroll’s mantra at USC has been to compete for everything. In part, because of this mantra I think that Pete would see this past year as a challenge, not as a sign to leave. At the same time, I can see how Carroll may think that he has unfinished business in the NFL; maybe he wants to take on that challenge. I really do not see money playing too much of a role in him leaving. From all reports I have ever seen, Pete gets paid quite well at USC. If money were a factor I would be shocked if USC did not pay him anything within reason to stay. We do not know why he would leave USC, but these are some potential factors.

Some may think that it is odd that I would spend so much time thinking/writing about the end of the Pete Carroll Era at USC. Well, here’s why. First, I have been a USC fan since I was a kid; my dad has been going to USC games since he was a teenager and I have been going with him since I was young. I have followed the program for a long time and have been through some poor seasons to say the least. When Carroll got USC rolling in the 2002 season it was as if he woke up a sleeping giant. After it became clear that Carroll was a godsend to the USC football program, it also became clear that there would be a time when he would leave and a hole of unrealistic expectations would be left for the next coach to fill. As a fan, I was concerned about what would happen after he left. Another reason I have given this a lot of thought is because of the nature of college football. Head coaches in college football are the most critical piece to a team/program. As much as I am not a supporter of the current college football system and its way of determining champions, there is no doubt that the system makes every game of the season a pseudo playoff game. If a team loses one game their chances of winning a championship are likely over, lose two games something out of the ordinary would have to happen (2007 LSU Tigers) to still have a chance, and three losses means better luck next year. In college football, individual games just matter more than other sports; there is very little margin for error. Pete Carroll is as good as they come at navigating a team through a college football season.

So, how do I feel about this whole situation? I know this much. I know I am going to miss Pete Carroll as the coach at USC. I know that it is going to be difficult to find a coach that can come close to matching Carroll’s success at USC. I know that I appreciated what Carroll and the teams he coached at USC accomplished on the field. I know how much I enjoyed watching USC football under Carroll. Lastly, I know that Carroll has done a lot for the community of Los Angeles. With all of this stated, I still have a bad feeling about the whole situation. If Carroll leaves he is doing it at one of the worst possible times. The next recruiting class is set to sign their intent in a few weeks. In the past few days I have seen numerous articles with a headline about USC recruiting and I am too scared and depressed to read on because the news cannot be good. Carroll’s departure is most likely to decimate a potential top five class. Because of the timing USC will likely rush to get a new coach in place to keep some of the recruiting class intact. I will finish where I started, Pete Carroll. Why is he leaving? Is he leaving because of violations that occurred under his watch? If he is leaving for that reason is he essentially abandoning the team and escaping this problem? How much can we blame him for the possible violations? Should we expect him to be able to control what his players do off the field? Can we expect him to be aware of what his players do off the field? I do not know the answers to these questions which is why I still do not know how to feel about this situation. I know that I hate asking myself these questions.